Detection of Dominant Rainfall Patterns in Indonesian Regions Using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) and Its Relation with ENSO and IOD Events
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Keywords:
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EOF, ITCZ, Monsoonal Winds, Rainfall Variability, Sea Surface Temperature
Abstract
Several studies indicate that Indonesia’s position on the equator, where winds from the northern and southern hemispheres converge, leads to year-round rainfall in Indonesia. Previous studies have also shown the presence of monsoon winds over Indonesia, which causes rain in Indonesia to follow the Asian and Australian monsoon wind patterns. Recently, variations in rainfall patterns and intensity in Indonesia have been highly volatile and difficult to predict. This study uses gridded data analysis of ocean-atmospheric rainfall for 69 years (1948–2016) to detect monsoonal, equatorial, and local signals and relate them to ENSO and IOD events. Rainfall analysis reveals that the first mode accounts for 38.57%, the second 13.92%, and the third 8.93% of the total variance. These results show that these variants are very variable, both in space and time. Monsoonal patterns were detected in the southern region of Indonesia, equatorial patterns in northern Sumatra and western Kalimantan, while local patterns were detected in Maluku and the Maluku Islands. Furthermore, the monsoonal and local rainfall patterns are strongly correlated (> 0.85) with local SST, but the equatorial rainfall pattern is weakly correlated (< 0.5) with local SST. Note that the equatorial pattern is associated with the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) phase. The varied vector correlation map illustrates the asymmetric fluctuations in sea surface temperature and the simultaneous existence of winds coming from the west from the Indian Ocean and winds coming from the east from the Pacific Ocean during the period of heavy precipitation.
References
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Liu, J., L. Zhao, J. Wang, and Z. Xiao (2024). Detecting Relationship between the North–South Difference in Extreme Precipitation and Solar Cycle in China. Atmosphere, 15(2); 175.
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Lyons, W. (1982). Empirical Orthogonal Function Analysis of Hawaiian Rainfall. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 21; 1713.
Mulsandi, A., Y. Koesmaryono, R. Hidayat, A. Faqih, and A. Sopaheluwakan (2024). Detecting Indonesian Monsoon Signals and Related Features Using Space–Time Singular Value Decomposition (SVD). Atmosphere, 15(2); 1–15.
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Obukhov, A. (1947). Statistically Homogeneous Fields on a Sphere. Usp. Mat. Nauk, 2; 196–198.
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Tang, Q., Y. Zhao, Y. He, Q. Yu, and T. Liang (2024). Analysis of Aerosol Types and Vertical Distribution in Seven Typical Cities in East Asia. Atmosphere, 15(2); 195.
Yamanaka, M. D. (2016). Physical Climatology of Indonesian Maritime Continent: An Outline to Comprehend Observational Studies. Atmospheric Research, 178–179; 231–259.
Yamanaka, M. D. (2018). Equatorial Rainfall and Global Climate. ISQUAR, 3; 3–6.
Zhang, Q., Q. Tang, X. Liu, S. M. Hosseini-Moghari, and P. Attarod (2020). Improving Princeton Forcing Dataset Over Iran Using the Delta-Ratio Method. Water (Switzerland), 12(3); 1–15.
Zheng, X.-T. (2019). Indo-Pacific Climate Modes in Warming Climate: Consensus and Uncertainty Across Model Projections. Current Climate Change Reports, 5(4); 308–321.
Annamalai, H., S. Kida, and J. Hafner (2010). Potential Impact of the Tropical Indian Ocean-Indonesian Seas on El Nino Characteristics. Journal of Climate, 23(14); 3933–3952.
Ariska, M., M. Irfan, and I. Iskandar (2024a). Spatio-Temporal Variations of Indonesian Rainfall and Their Links to Indo-Pacific Modes. Atmosphere, 15(1036); 1–18.
Ariska, M., S. Suhadi, S. Supari, M. Irfan, and I. Iskandar (2024b). Annual and Interannual Rainfall Variability in Indonesia Using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) Analysis and Its Response to Ocean-Atmosphere Dynamics. Physical Sciences Journal, 16(2); 151–165.
Baeda, A. Y., C. Pao’Tonan, and D. Abdullah (2019). The Correlation between Sea Surface Temperature and MJO Incidence in Indonesian Waters. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 235(1); 012020.
Beck, H. E., N. Vergopolan, M. Pan, V. Levizzani, A. I. Van Dijk, G. P. Weedon, L. Brocca, F. Pappenberger, G. J. Huffman, and E. F. Wood (2017). Global-scale evaluation of 22 precipitation datasets using gauge observations and hydrological modeling. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 21(12); 6201–6217.
Campos, C., F. T. Couto, F. L. M. Santos, J. Rio, T. Ferreira, and R. Salgado (2024). ECMWF Lightning Forecast in Mainland Portugal During Four Fire Seasons. Atmosphere, 15(2); 156.
Chang, C. P., Z. Wang, J. Ju, and T. Li (2004). On the Relationship between Western Maritime Continent Monsoon Rainfall and ENSO During Northern Winter. Journal of Climate, 17(3); 665–672.
Chang, C. P., W. Zhuo, M. John, and L. Ching-Hwang (2005). Annual Cycle of Southeast Asia — Maritime Continent Rainfall and the Asymmetric. Journal of Climate, 18; 287–301.
Cooley, J. W., P. A. W. Lewis, and P. D. Welch (1969). The Fast Fourier Transform and Its Applications. IEEE Transactions on Education, 12(1); 27–34.
Estrela, M. J., D. Corell, J. J. Miró, and R. Niclós (2024). Analysis of Precipitation and Drought in the Main Southeastern Iberian River Headwaters (1952–2021). Atmosphere, 15(2); 166.
Fukuoka, A. (1951). A study of 10-day forecast (a synthetic report). Geophys. Mag., 22; 177–218.
Ge, J., X. Jia, and H. Ma (2024). Pacific Decadal Oscillation Modulation on the Relationship between Moderate El Niño-Southern Oscillation and East Asian Winter Temperature. Atmosphere, 15(2).
Hendon, H. H. (2003). Indonesian Rainfall Variability: Impacts Of ENSO and Local Air-Sea Interaction. Journal of Climate, 16(11); 1775–1790.
Horii, T., E. Siswanto, I. Iskandar, I. Ueki, and K. Ando (2022). Can Coastal Upwelling Trigger a Climate Mode? A Study on Intraseasonal-Scale Coastal Upwelling off Java and the Indian Ocean Dipole. Geophysical Research Letters, 49(15); 1–9.
Igarashi, T. and D. Suryadarma (2023). Foundational Mathematics and Reading Skills of Filipino Students Over a Generation. International Journal of Educational Development, 96; 102688.
Iskandar, I., D. O. Lestari, A. D. Saputra, R. Y. Setiawan, A. Wirasatriya, R. D. Susanto, W. Mardiansyah, M. Irfan, Rozirwan, J. D. Setiawan, and Kunarso (2022). Extreme Positive Indian Ocean Dipole in 2019 and Its Impact on Indonesia. Sustainability (Switzerland), 14(22); 1–15.
Iskandar, I., Q. W. Sari, D. Setiabudidaya, I. Yustian, and B. Monger (2017). The Distribution and Variability of Chlorophyll-A Bloom in the Southeastern Tropical Indian Ocean Using Empirical Orthogonal Function Analysis. Biodiversitas, 18(4); 1546–1555.
Iskandar, I., T. Tozuka, Y. Masumoto, and T. Yamagata (2008). Impact of Indian Ocean Dipole on Intraseasonal Zonal Currents at 90°E on the Equator As Revealed by Self-Organizing Map. Geophysical Research Letters, 35(14); 1–5.
Kajita, R., M. D. Yamanaka, and O. Kozan (2022). Reconstruction of Rainfall Records at 24 Observation Stations in Sumatera, Colonial Indonesia, from 1879–1900. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 23(10); 1–71.
Katsumata, M., S. Mori, J.-I. Hamada, M. Hattori, F. Syamsudin, and M. D. Yamanaka (2018). Diurnal Cycle Over a Coastal Area of the Maritime Continent as Derived by Special Networked Soundings Over Jakarta During HARIMAU2010. Progress in Earth and Planetary Science, 5(1); 6.
Kurniawati, N., D. O. Lestari, Fauziyah, D. Setiabudidaya, and I. Iskandar (2020). Variation of Thermodynamic Layers Over the South Coastal Java Region (SJCR) and Their Influences on Nutrient Abundance. Journal of Physics: Conference Series, 1568(1).
Lestari, D. O., E. Sutriyono, S. Kadir, and I. Iskandar (2019). Impact of 2016 Weak La Nina Modoki Event Over the Indonesian Region. International Journal of GEOMATE, 17(61); 156–162.
Liu, J., L. Zhao, J. Wang, and Z. Xiao (2024). Detecting Relationship between the North–South Difference in Extreme Precipitation and Solar Cycle in China. Atmosphere, 15(2); 175.
Lorenz, E. N. (1956). Empirical Orthogonal Functions and Statistical Weather Prediction. Technical Report Statistical Forecast Project Rep. 1.
Lyons, W. (1982). Empirical Orthogonal Function Analysis of Hawaiian Rainfall. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 21; 1713.
Mulsandi, A., Y. Koesmaryono, R. Hidayat, A. Faqih, and A. Sopaheluwakan (2024). Detecting Indonesian Monsoon Signals and Related Features Using Space–Time Singular Value Decomposition (SVD). Atmosphere, 15(2); 1–15.
Nugroho, A. R., I. Tamagawa, and M. Harada (2021). The Relationship between River Flow Regimes and Climate Indices of ENSO and IOD on Code River, Southern Indonesia. Water (Switzerland), 13(10); 1–14.
Obukhov, A. (1947). Statistically Homogeneous Fields on a Sphere. Usp. Mat. Nauk, 2; 196–198.
Obukhov, A. (1960). The Statistically Orthogonal Expansion of Empirical Functions. Bull. Acad. Sci. USSR, Geophys. Ser., 1; 288–291.
Tang, Q., Y. Zhao, Y. He, Q. Yu, and T. Liang (2024). Analysis of Aerosol Types and Vertical Distribution in Seven Typical Cities in East Asia. Atmosphere, 15(2); 195.
Yamanaka, M. D. (2016). Physical Climatology of Indonesian Maritime Continent: An Outline to Comprehend Observational Studies. Atmospheric Research, 178–179; 231–259.
Yamanaka, M. D. (2018). Equatorial Rainfall and Global Climate. ISQUAR, 3; 3–6.
Zhang, Q., Q. Tang, X. Liu, S. M. Hosseini-Moghari, and P. Attarod (2020). Improving Princeton Forcing Dataset Over Iran Using the Delta-Ratio Method. Water (Switzerland), 12(3); 1–15.
Zheng, X.-T. (2019). Indo-Pacific Climate Modes in Warming Climate: Consensus and Uncertainty Across Model Projections. Current Climate Change Reports, 5(4); 308–321.
Authors
Ariska, M., Suhadi, Supari, Irfan, M., & Iskandar, I. (2024). Detection of Dominant Rainfall Patterns in Indonesian Regions Using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) and Its Relation with ENSO and IOD Events. Science and Technology Indonesia, 9(4), 1009–1023. https://doi.org/10.26554/sti.2024.9.4.1009-1023
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