Dynamics of Extreme Rainfall and Its Impact on Forest and Land Fires in the Eastern Coast of Sumatra
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Keywords:
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Eastern Coast of Sumatra, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Extreme Rainfall Index, Forest and Land Fires, Indian Ocean Dipole
Abstract
This article examines the extreme climate events on the Eastern Coast of Sumatra over four decades (1981-2019) based on the extreme rainfall index defined using the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The indices used include Consecutive Dry Day (CDD and the total rainfall per year (PRCPTOT). Theses indices were calculated and are based on the daily observation data from eight quality-controlled weather stations. While overall trends in extreme rainfall indices are not significant, there is a noticeable trend towards drought, with CDD rising by 1.23 days per decade and PRCPTOT decreased by 3.16 mm/year. The correlation between the Dipole Mode Index (DMI) and extreme rainfall indices in the August-September-October-November (ASON) period was positive, with CDD increasing with the more positive DMI value. On the other hand, the PRCPTOT index showed a decrease as the DMI more positive. The ENSO index and CDD are positively correlated during the dry season, while ENSO index negatively correlates with PRCPTOT. The duration of CDD during El Niño/positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events in 1997, 2015, and 2019 had significant impact on the forest and land fires on the Eastern Coast of Sumatra. The results are useful for policymakers in preventing forest and land fires on the Eastern Coast of Sumatra.
References
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Ray, D., D. Nepstad, and P. Moutinho (2005). Micrometeorological and Canopy Controls of Fire Susceptibility in a Forested Amazon Landscape. Ecological Applications, 15(5); 1664–1678
Saji, N. (2001). Structure of SST and Surface Wind Variability in COADS Observations During IOD Years. Journal Climate, 16; 2735–2751
Saji, N., B. N. Goswami, P. Vinayachandran, and T. Yamagata (1999). A Dipole Mode in the Tropical Indian Ocean. Nature, 401(6751); 360–363
Sastry, N. (2002). Forest Fires, Air Pollution, and Mortality in Southeast Asia. Demography, 39(1); 1–23
Siswanto, S., G. J. van Oldenborgh, G. van der Schrier, R. Jilderda, and B. van den Hurk (2016). Temperature, Extreme Precipitation, and Diurnal Rainfall Changes in the Urbanized Jakarta City During the Past 130 Years. International Journal of Climatology, 36(9); 3207–3225
Stooksbury, D. E., C. D. Idso, and K. G. Hubbard (1999). The Effects of Data Gaps on the Calculated Monthly Mean Maximum and Minimum Temperatures in the Continental United States: A Spatial and Temporal Study. Journal of Climate, 12(5); 1524–1533
Supari, F. Tangang, L. Juneng, and E. Aldrian (2017). Observed Changes in Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Over Indonesia. International Journal of Climatology, 37(4); 1979–1997
Supari, F. Tangang, E. Salimun, E. Aldrian, A. Sopaheluwakan, and L. Juneng (2018). ENSO Modulation of Seasonal Rainfall and Extremes in Indonesia. Climate Dynamics, 51; 2559– 2580
Tank, A. M. K., F. W. Zwiers, and X. Zhang (2009). Guidelines on Analysis of Extremes in a Changing Climate in Support of Informed Decisions for Adaptation. World Meteorological Organization
Utari, P. A., M. Y. N. Khakim, D. Setiabudidaya, and I. Iskandar (2020). Dynamics of 2015 Positive Indian Ocean Dipole. Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science, 69(1); 75–83
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Wang, X. L. and Y. Feng (2013). Climate Research Division Atmospheric Science and Technology Directorate Science and Technology Branch, Environment Canada Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Science and Technology Branch, 17; 1–27
Webster, P. J., A. M. Moore, J. P. Loschnigg, and R. R. Leben (1999). Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Dynamics in the Indian Ocean during 1997–98. Nature, 401(6751); 356–360
WMO (2018). Guía de Prácticas Climatológicas. Organización Meteorológica Mundial
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Yamagata, T., S. K. Behera, J.-J. Luo, S. Masson, M. R. Jury, and S. A. Rao (2004). Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Variability in the Tropical Indian Ocean. Earth’s Climate: The Ocean–Atmosphere Interaction, Geophys. Monogr, 147; 189–212
Zhang, F., J. A. Biederman, M. P. Dannenberg, D. Yan, S. C. Reed, and W. K. Smith (2021). Five Decades of Observed Daily Precipitation Reveal Longer and More Variable Drought Events Across Much of the Western United States. Geophysical Research Letters, 48(7); e2020GL092293
Zhang, X., E. Aguilar, S. Sensoy, H. Melkonyan, U. Tagiyeva, N. Ahmed, N. Kutaladze, F. Rahimzadeh, A. Taghipour, and T. Hantosh (2005). Trends in Middle East Climate Extreme Indices from 1950 to 2003. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 110(D22); 1–12
Zhang, X. and F. Yang (2004). RClimDex (1.0) User Manual.Climate Research Branch Environment Canada, 22; 13–14
Aldrian, E. and R. Dwi Susanto (2003). Identification of Three Dominant Rainfall Regions within Indonesia and Their Relationship to Sea Surface Temperature. International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 23(12); 1435–1452
Alexander, L. V., P. Uotila, and N. Nicholls (2009). Influence of Sea Surface Temperature Variability on Global Temperature and Precipitation Extremes. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 114(D18); 1–13
Burton, C., R. A. Betts, C. D. Jones, T. R. Feldpausch, M. Cardoso, and L. O. Anderson (2020). El Niño Driven Changes in Global Fire 2015/16. Frontiers in Earth Science, 8; 199
Cochrane, M. A. and M. D. Schulze (1999). Fire as a Recurrent Event in Tropical Forests of the Eastern Amazon: Effects on Forest Structure, Biomass, and Species Composition1. Biotropica, 31(1); 2–16
Edwards, S. A. and F. Heiduk (2015). Hazy Days: Forest Fires and the Politics of Environmental Security in Indonesia. Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs, 34(3); 65–94
Hendon, H. H. (2003). Indonesian Rainfall Variability: Impacts of ENSO and Local Air–Sea Interaction. Journal of Climate, 16(11); 1775–1790
Huijnen, V., M. J. Wooster, J. W. Kaiser, D. L. Gaveau, J. Flemming, M. Parrington, A. Inness, D. Murdiyarso, B. Main, and M. van Weele (2016). Fire Carbon Emissions Over Maritime Southeast Asia in 2015 Largest Since 1997. Scientific Reports, 6(1); 1–8
Iskandar, I., D. Lestari, P. Utari, M. Khakim, P. Poerwono, D. Setiabudidaya, et al. (2018). Evolution and Impact of the 2016 Negative Indian Ocean Dipole. In Journal of Physics: Conference Series, volume 985. IOP Publishing, page 012017
Iskandar, I., D. O. Lestari, A. D. Saputra, R. Y. Setiawan, A. Wirasatriya, R. D. Susanto, W. Mardiansyah, M. Irfan, Rozirwan, and J. D. Setiawan (2022). Extreme Positive Indian Ocean Dipole in 2019 and Its Impact on Indonesia. Sustainability, 14(22); 15155
Juneng, L. and F. T. Tangang (2005). Evolution of ENSORelated Rainfall Anomalies in Southeast Asia Region and Its Relationship with Atmosphere–Ocean Variations in IndoPacific Sector. Climate Dynamics, 25; 337–350
Keggenhoff, I., M. Elizbarashvili, A. Amiri-Farahani, and L. King (2014). Trends in Daily Temperature and Precipitation Extremes Over Georgia, 1971–2010. Weather and Climate Extremes, 4; 75–85
Kenyon, J. and G. C. Hegerl (2010). Influence of Modes of Climate Variability on Global Precipitation Extremes. Journal of Climate, 23(23); 6248–6262
Lestari, D. O., E. Sutriyono, S. Kadir, and I. Iskandar (2018). Respective Influences of the Indian Ocean Dipole and ElNiño-Southern Oscillation on the Indonesian Precipitation. Journal of Mathematical and Fundamental Sciences, 50(3); 257–272
Lestari, S., A. King, C. Vincent, D. Karoly, and A. Protat (2019). Seasonal Dependence of Rainfall Extremes in and Around Jakarta, Indonesia. Weather and Climate Extremes, 24; 100202
Mishra, A. K. (2019). Quantifying the Impact of Global Warming on Precipitation Patterns in India. Meteorological Applications, 26(1); 153–160
Muhammad, N., J. Abdullah, and P. Julien (2020). Characteristics of Rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia. In Journal of Physics: Conference Series, volume 1529. IOP Publishing, page 052014
Murtugudde, R., J. P. McCreary Jr, and A. J. Busalacchi (2000). Oceanic Processes Associated with Anomalous Events in the Indian Ocean with Relevance to 1997–1998. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 105(C2); 3295–3306
Noorisameleh, Z., S. Khaledi, A. Shakiba, P. Z. Firouzabadi, W. A. Gough, and M. M. Q. Mirza (2020). Comparative Evaluation of Impacts of Climate Change and Droughts on River Flow Vulnerability in Iran. Water Science and Engineering, 13(4); 265–274
Nur’utami, M. N. and R. Hidayat (2016). Influences of IOD and ENSO to Indonesian Rainfall Variability: Role of Atmosphere-Ocean Interaction in the Indo-Pacific Sector. Procedia Environmental Sciences, 33; 196–203
Philander, S. G. (1989). El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation. International Geophysics Series, 46; X–289
Phuong, D. N. D., N. T. Huyen, N. D. Liem, N. T. Hong, D. K. Cuong, and N. K. Loi (2022). On the Use of an Innovative Trend Analysis Methodology for Temporal Trend Identification in Extreme Rainfall Indices Over the Central Highlands, Vietnam. Theoretical and Applied Climatology; 1–18
Prasetyo, L. B., Y. Setiawan, A. A. Condro, K. Kustiyo, E. I. Putra, N. Hayati, A. K. Wijayanto, A. Ramadhi, and D. Murdiyarso (2022). Assessing Sumatran Peat Vulnerability to Fire under Various Condition of ENSO Phases Using Machine Learning Approaches. Forests, 13(6); 828
Purnomo, H., B. Shantiko, S. Sitorus, H. Gunawan, R. Achdiawan, H. Kartodihardjo, and A. A.Dewayani (2017). Fire Economy and Actor Network of Forest and Land Fires in Indonesia. Forest Policy and Economics, 78; 21–31
Putra, R., E. Sutriyono, S. Kadir, and I. Iskandar (2019a). Understanding of Fire Distribution in the South Sumatra Peat Area During the Last Two Decades. GEOMATE Journal, 16(54); 146–151
Putra, R., E. Sutriyono, S. Kadir, I. Iskandar, and D. O. Lestari (2019b). Dynamical Link of Peat Fires in South Sumatra and the Climate Modes in the Indo-Pacific Region. The Indonesian Journal of Geography, 51(1); 18–22
Ray, D., D. Nepstad, and P. Moutinho (2005). Micrometeorological and Canopy Controls of Fire Susceptibility in a Forested Amazon Landscape. Ecological Applications, 15(5); 1664–1678
Saji, N. (2001). Structure of SST and Surface Wind Variability in COADS Observations During IOD Years. Journal Climate, 16; 2735–2751
Saji, N., B. N. Goswami, P. Vinayachandran, and T. Yamagata (1999). A Dipole Mode in the Tropical Indian Ocean. Nature, 401(6751); 360–363
Sastry, N. (2002). Forest Fires, Air Pollution, and Mortality in Southeast Asia. Demography, 39(1); 1–23
Siswanto, S., G. J. van Oldenborgh, G. van der Schrier, R. Jilderda, and B. van den Hurk (2016). Temperature, Extreme Precipitation, and Diurnal Rainfall Changes in the Urbanized Jakarta City During the Past 130 Years. International Journal of Climatology, 36(9); 3207–3225
Stooksbury, D. E., C. D. Idso, and K. G. Hubbard (1999). The Effects of Data Gaps on the Calculated Monthly Mean Maximum and Minimum Temperatures in the Continental United States: A Spatial and Temporal Study. Journal of Climate, 12(5); 1524–1533
Supari, F. Tangang, L. Juneng, and E. Aldrian (2017). Observed Changes in Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Over Indonesia. International Journal of Climatology, 37(4); 1979–1997
Supari, F. Tangang, E. Salimun, E. Aldrian, A. Sopaheluwakan, and L. Juneng (2018). ENSO Modulation of Seasonal Rainfall and Extremes in Indonesia. Climate Dynamics, 51; 2559– 2580
Tank, A. M. K., F. W. Zwiers, and X. Zhang (2009). Guidelines on Analysis of Extremes in a Changing Climate in Support of Informed Decisions for Adaptation. World Meteorological Organization
Utari, P. A., M. Y. N. Khakim, D. Setiabudidaya, and I. Iskandar (2020). Dynamics of 2015 Positive Indian Ocean Dipole. Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science, 69(1); 75–83
Vincent, L., E. Aguilar, M. Saindou, A. Hassane, G. Jumaux, D. Roy, P. Booneeady, R. Virasami, L. Randriamarolaza, and F. Faniriantsoa (2011). Observed Trends in Indices of Daily and Extreme Temperature and Precipitation for the Countries of the Western Indian Ocean, 1961–2008. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 116(D10); 1–12
Wang, X. L. and Y. Feng (2013). Climate Research Division Atmospheric Science and Technology Directorate Science and Technology Branch, Environment Canada Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Science and Technology Branch, 17; 1–27
Webster, P. J., A. M. Moore, J. P. Loschnigg, and R. R. Leben (1999). Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Dynamics in the Indian Ocean during 1997–98. Nature, 401(6751); 356–360
WMO (2018). Guía de Prácticas Climatológicas. Organización Meteorológica Mundial
Worden, H., M. Deeter, C. Frankenberg, M. George, F. Nichitiu, J. Worden, I. Aben, K. Bowman, C. Clerbaux, and P.-F. Coheur (2013). Decadal Record of Satellite Carbon Monoxide Observations. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 13(2); 837–850
Yamagata, T., S. K. Behera, J.-J. Luo, S. Masson, M. R. Jury, and S. A. Rao (2004). Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Variability in the Tropical Indian Ocean. Earth’s Climate: The Ocean–Atmosphere Interaction, Geophys. Monogr, 147; 189–212
Zhang, F., J. A. Biederman, M. P. Dannenberg, D. Yan, S. C. Reed, and W. K. Smith (2021). Five Decades of Observed Daily Precipitation Reveal Longer and More Variable Drought Events Across Much of the Western United States. Geophysical Research Letters, 48(7); e2020GL092293
Zhang, X., E. Aguilar, S. Sensoy, H. Melkonyan, U. Tagiyeva, N. Ahmed, N. Kutaladze, F. Rahimzadeh, A. Taghipour, and T. Hantosh (2005). Trends in Middle East Climate Extreme Indices from 1950 to 2003. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 110(D22); 1–12
Zhang, X. and F. Yang (2004). RClimDex (1.0) User Manual.Climate Research Branch Environment Canada, 22; 13–14
Authors
Akhsan, H. ., Irfan, M., Supari, & Iskandar, I. (2023). Dynamics of Extreme Rainfall and Its Impact on Forest and Land Fires in the Eastern Coast of Sumatra. Science and Technology Indonesia, 8(3), 403–413. https://doi.org/10.26554/sti.2023.8.3.403-413
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