Extreme Drought Assessment in Sumatra-Indonesia Using SPI and EDI
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Keywords:
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Extreme Drought, Sumatra, Indonesia, Standardized Precipitation Index, Effective Drought Index, El Niño, Positive IOD
Abstract
Even though Sumatra is very vulnerable to the effects of drought, research identifying drought on this island is very limited, especially extreme drought. This research was conducted to identify extreme drought in Sumatra using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Effective Drought Index (EDI). This study uses precipitation data from the Indonesian Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) and Global Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC) reanalysis data. The composite indices were conducted to discover some phenomena that cause the drought based on El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events. The results showed that the El Niño and positive IOD phenomena were more likely to influence extreme droughts. However, the droughts in 2014 and 2008 tended to be influenced by the negative Sea Surface Temperature anomaly (SSTA). The spatial analysis results show that the areas that experience extreme drought more often are the west coast of Sumatra (except Aceh province), especially based on SPI12 and EDI. The composite indices results show that the drought that occurred in Aceh province was more influenced by the El Niño phenomenon in the December-January-February (DJF) period and the positive IOD in the June-July-August (JJA) – September-October-November (SON) period. In addition, Aceh province is an area that is not affected by El Niño-positive IOD, especially during the SON-DJF period. These results can be used to mitigate drought, especially when El Niño-positive IOD phenomena cause it.
References
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Bougara, H., K. Baba Hamed, C. Borgemeister, B. Tischbein, and N. Kumar (2021). A Comparative Assessment of Meteorological Drought in the Tafna Basin, Northwestern Algeria. Journal of Water and Land Development, (51); 78–93
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Kuswanto, H., F. Hibatullah, and E. S. Soedjono (2019). Perception of Weather and Seasonal Drought Forecasts and its Impact on Livelihood in East Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia. Heliyon, 5(8)
Lee, H. S. (2015). General Rainfall Patterns in Indonesia and the Potential Impacts of Local Seas On Rainfall Intensity. Water, 7(4); 1751–1768
McKee, T. B., N. J. Doesken, and J. Kleist (1993). The Relationship of Drought Frequency and Duration to Time Scales. Proceedings of Eighth Conference on Applied Climatology, 17(22); 179–183
Mori, S., H. Jun Ichi, Y. I. Tauhid, M. D. Yamanaka, N. Okamoto, F. Murata, N. Sakurai, H. Hashiguchi, and T. Sribimawati (2004). Diurnal Land–sea Rainfall Peak Migration Over Sumatera Island, Indonesian Maritime Continent, Observed by TRMM Satellite and Intensive Rawin-sonde Soundings. Monthly Weather Review, 132(8); 2021–2039
Nita, I., A. N. Putra, and A. Fibrianingtyas (2020). Analysis of Drought Hazards in Agricultural Land in Pacitan Regency, Indonesia. SAINS TANAH-Journal of Soil Science and Agroclimatology, 17(1); 7–15
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Nurdiati, S., A. Sopaheluwakan, and P. Septiawan (2021). Spatial and Temporal Analysis of El Niño Impact on Land and Forest Fire in Kalimantan and Sumatra. Agromet, 35(1); 1–10
Park, C. K., J. Kam, H. R. Byun, and D. W. Kim (2022). A self-calibrating Effective Drought Index (scEDI): Evaluation Against Social Drought Impact Records Over the Korean Peninsula (1777–2020). Journal of Hydrology, 613; 128357
Pramudya, Y., T. Onishi, M. Senge, K. Hiramatsu, and P. M. Nur (2019). Evaluation of Recent Drought Conditions by Standardized Precipitation Index and Potential Evapotranspiration Over Indonesia. Paddy and Water Environment, 17; 331–338
Prinz, D. (2009). Contributor and Victim-Indonesia’s Role in Global Climate Change with Special Reference to Kalimantan. Jurnal Sains & Teknologi Lingkungan, 1(2); 139–153
Qian, J. H. (2020). Multi-scale Climate Processes and Rainfall Variability in Sumatra and Malay Peninsula Associated with ENSO in Boreal Fall and Winter. International Journal of Climatology, 40(9); 4171–4188
Raude, J. M., R. M. Wambua, and B. M. Mutua (2018). Detection of Spatial, Temporal and Trend of Meteorological Drought Using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Effective Drought Index (EDI) in the Upper Tana River Basin. Open Journal of Modern Hydrology, 8; 83–100
Saji, N. and T. Yamagata (2003). Possible Impacts of Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Events on Global Climate. Climate Research, 25(2); 151–169
Salehnia, N., A. Alizadeh, H. Sanaeinejad, M. Bannayan, A. Zarrin, and G. Hoogenboom (2017). Estimation of Meteorological Drought Indices based on AgMERRA Precipitation Data and Station-observed Precipitation Data. Journal of Arid Land, 9; 797–809
Sarmiasih, M. and P. Y. Pratama (2019). The Problematics Mitigation of Forest and Land Fire District (Kerhutla) in Policy Perspective (A Case Study: Kalimantan and Sumatra in Period 2015-2019). Journal of Governance and Public Policy, 6(3); 270–292
Supari, S., I. Iskandar, M. Irfan, and H. Akhsan (2023). Drought Assessment in Aceh and North Sumatra Using Effective Drought Index. Science and Technology Indonesia, 8(2)
Supari, S., R. Muharsyah, and A. Sopaheluwakan (2016). Mapping Drought Risk in Indonesia Related to El-Niño Hazard. AIP Conference Proceedings, 1730(1)
Svoboda, M. and B. Fuchs (2016). Handbook of Drought Indicators and Indices. Drought and Water Crises: Integrating Science, Management, and Policy; 155–208
WMO (2012). Standardized Precipitation Index User Guide. World Meteorological Organization, 1090
WMO (2016). Handbook of Drought Indicators and Indices. In British Medical Journal; 2366
Zargar, A., R. Sadiq, B. Naser, and F. I. Khan (2011). A Review of Drought Indices. Environmental Reviews, 19(NA); 333–349
Abramowitz, M. and I. A. Stegun (1964). Handbook of Mathematical Functions with Formulas, Graphs, and Mathematical Tables, volume 55. US Government Printing Office
Adeola, O. M., M. Masinde, J. O. Botai, A. M. Adeola, and C. M. Botai (2021). An Analysis of Precipitation Extreme Events based on the SPI and Edi Values in the Free State Province, South Africa. Water, 13(21); 3058
Adisa, O. M., M. Masinde, and J. O. Botai (2021). Assessment of the Dissimilarities of EDI and SPI Measures for Drought Determination in South Africa. Water, 13(1); 82
Aldrian, E. and R. Dwi Susanto (2003). Identification of Three Dominant Rainfall Regions within Indonesia and their Relationship to Sea Surface Temperature. International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 23(12); 1435–1452
Avia, L. and I. Sofiati (2018). Analysis of El Niño and IOD Phenomenon 2015/2016 and Their Impact on Rainfall Variability in Indonesia. Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 166(1); 012034
Bougara, H., K. Baba Hamed, C. Borgemeister, B. Tischbein, and N. Kumar (2021). A Comparative Assessment of Meteorological Drought in the Tafna Basin, Northwestern Algeria. Journal of Water and Land Development, (51); 78–93
Byun, H. R. and D. A. Wilhite (1999). Objective Quantification of Drought Severity and Duration. Journal of Climate, 12(9); 2747–2756
Chandrasekara, S. S., H.-H. Kwon, M. Vithanage, J. Obeysekera, and T. W. Kim (2021). Drought in South Asia: A Review of Drought Assessment and Prediction in South Asian Countries. Atmosphere, 12(3); 369
Daoed, D., B. Rusman, B. Istijono, A. Hakam, and M. Syukur (2018). Evaluation of Drought Vulnerability on Watersheds in West Sumatera Province by using Cropwat-8 and GIS. International Journal on Advanced Science, Engineering and Information Technology, 8(6); 2443–2449
Darlan, N. H., S. S. Arif, P. Sudira, and B. D. A. Nugroho (2020). Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Seasonal Rainfall on the East Coast of North Sumatra, Indonesia. Indonesian Journal of Geography, 52(3); 360–367
Davies, S. J. and L. Unam (1999). Smoke-haze from the 1997 Indonesian Forest Fires: Effects on Pollution Levels, Local Climate, Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations, and Tree Photosynthesis. Forest Ecology and Management, 124(2-3); 137–144
Edwards, D. C. and T. B. McKee (1997). Characteristics of 20th Century Drought in the United States at Multiple Time Scales, volume 97. Colorado State University Fort Collins
Eslamian, S., K. Ostad Ali Askari, V. P. Singh, N. R. Dalezios, M. Ghane, Y. Yihdego, and M. Matouq (2017). A Review of Drought Indices. International Journal of Constructive Research in Civil Engineering, 3; 48–66
Huang, Y. F., J. T. Ang, Y. J. Tiong, M. Mirzaei, and M. Z. M. Amin (2016). Drought Forecasting using SPI and EDI under RCP-8.5 Climate Change Scenarios for Langat River Basin, Malaysia. Procedia Engineering, 154; 710–717
Iskandar, I., M. Irfan, F. Syamsuddin, A. Johan, and P. Poerwono (2011). Trend in Precipitation Over Sumatera Under the Warming Earth. International Journal of Remote Sensing and Earth Sciences (IJReSES), 8(1)
Iskandar, I., W. Mardiansyah, D. Setiabudidaya, P. Poerwono, I. Yusyian, and Z. Dahlan (2017a). What Did Drive Extreme Drought Event in Indonesia During Boreal Summer/fall 2014? Journal of Physics: Conference Series, 817(1); 012073
Iskandar, I., P. A. Utari, D. O. Lestari, Q. W. Sari, D. Setiabudidaya, M. Khakim, I. Yustian, and Z. Dahlan (2017b). Evolution of 2015/2016 El Niño and its Impact on Indonesia. 1857(1)
Jain, V. K., R. P. Pandey, M. K. Jain, and H. R. Byun (2015). Comparison of Drought Indices for Appraisal of Drought Characteristics in the Ken River Basin. Weather and Climate Extremes, 8; 1–11
Kamruzzaman, M., S. Hwang, J. Cho, M. W. Jang, and H. Jeong (2019). Evaluating the Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Agricultural Drought in Bangladesh using Effective Drought Index. Water, 11(12); 2437
Kurniadi, A., E. Weller, S. K. Min, and M. G. Seong (2021). Independent ENSO and IOD Impacts on Rainfall Extremes Over Indonesia. International Journal of Climatology, 41(6); 3640–3656
Kuswanto, H., F. Hibatullah, and E. S. Soedjono (2019). Perception of Weather and Seasonal Drought Forecasts and its Impact on Livelihood in East Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia. Heliyon, 5(8)
Lee, H. S. (2015). General Rainfall Patterns in Indonesia and the Potential Impacts of Local Seas On Rainfall Intensity. Water, 7(4); 1751–1768
McKee, T. B., N. J. Doesken, and J. Kleist (1993). The Relationship of Drought Frequency and Duration to Time Scales. Proceedings of Eighth Conference on Applied Climatology, 17(22); 179–183
Mori, S., H. Jun Ichi, Y. I. Tauhid, M. D. Yamanaka, N. Okamoto, F. Murata, N. Sakurai, H. Hashiguchi, and T. Sribimawati (2004). Diurnal Land–sea Rainfall Peak Migration Over Sumatera Island, Indonesian Maritime Continent, Observed by TRMM Satellite and Intensive Rawin-sonde Soundings. Monthly Weather Review, 132(8); 2021–2039
Nita, I., A. N. Putra, and A. Fibrianingtyas (2020). Analysis of Drought Hazards in Agricultural Land in Pacitan Regency, Indonesia. SAINS TANAH-Journal of Soil Science and Agroclimatology, 17(1); 7–15
Nurdiati, S., F. Bukhari, M. T. Julianto, A. Sopaheluwakan, M. Aprilia, I. Fajar, P. Septiawan, and M. K. Najib (2022). The Impact of El Niño Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole on the Burned Area in Indonesia. Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, 33(1); 16
Nurdiati, S., A. Sopaheluwakan, and P. Septiawan (2021). Spatial and Temporal Analysis of El Niño Impact on Land and Forest Fire in Kalimantan and Sumatra. Agromet, 35(1); 1–10
Park, C. K., J. Kam, H. R. Byun, and D. W. Kim (2022). A self-calibrating Effective Drought Index (scEDI): Evaluation Against Social Drought Impact Records Over the Korean Peninsula (1777–2020). Journal of Hydrology, 613; 128357
Pramudya, Y., T. Onishi, M. Senge, K. Hiramatsu, and P. M. Nur (2019). Evaluation of Recent Drought Conditions by Standardized Precipitation Index and Potential Evapotranspiration Over Indonesia. Paddy and Water Environment, 17; 331–338
Prinz, D. (2009). Contributor and Victim-Indonesia’s Role in Global Climate Change with Special Reference to Kalimantan. Jurnal Sains & Teknologi Lingkungan, 1(2); 139–153
Qian, J. H. (2020). Multi-scale Climate Processes and Rainfall Variability in Sumatra and Malay Peninsula Associated with ENSO in Boreal Fall and Winter. International Journal of Climatology, 40(9); 4171–4188
Raude, J. M., R. M. Wambua, and B. M. Mutua (2018). Detection of Spatial, Temporal and Trend of Meteorological Drought Using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Effective Drought Index (EDI) in the Upper Tana River Basin. Open Journal of Modern Hydrology, 8; 83–100
Saji, N. and T. Yamagata (2003). Possible Impacts of Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Events on Global Climate. Climate Research, 25(2); 151–169
Salehnia, N., A. Alizadeh, H. Sanaeinejad, M. Bannayan, A. Zarrin, and G. Hoogenboom (2017). Estimation of Meteorological Drought Indices based on AgMERRA Precipitation Data and Station-observed Precipitation Data. Journal of Arid Land, 9; 797–809
Sarmiasih, M. and P. Y. Pratama (2019). The Problematics Mitigation of Forest and Land Fire District (Kerhutla) in Policy Perspective (A Case Study: Kalimantan and Sumatra in Period 2015-2019). Journal of Governance and Public Policy, 6(3); 270–292
Supari, S., I. Iskandar, M. Irfan, and H. Akhsan (2023). Drought Assessment in Aceh and North Sumatra Using Effective Drought Index. Science and Technology Indonesia, 8(2)
Supari, S., R. Muharsyah, and A. Sopaheluwakan (2016). Mapping Drought Risk in Indonesia Related to El-Niño Hazard. AIP Conference Proceedings, 1730(1)
Svoboda, M. and B. Fuchs (2016). Handbook of Drought Indicators and Indices. Drought and Water Crises: Integrating Science, Management, and Policy; 155–208
WMO (2012). Standardized Precipitation Index User Guide. World Meteorological Organization, 1090
WMO (2016). Handbook of Drought Indicators and Indices. In British Medical Journal; 2366
Zargar, A., R. Sadiq, B. Naser, and F. I. Khan (2011). A Review of Drought Indices. Environmental Reviews, 19(NA); 333–349
Authors
Suhadi, Iskandar, I., Supari, Irfan, M., & Akhsan, H. (2023). Extreme Drought Assessment in Sumatra-Indonesia Using SPI and EDI. Science and Technology Indonesia, 8(4), 691–700. https://doi.org/10.26554/sti.2023.8.4.691-700
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